Article by Leah Thayer
Is an international student slowdown ahead? Aimee Gruber fears the answer is yes, and that complacency could leave many independent schools unprepared for a reality that will impact bottom lines starting with the 2019 school year. “I think CFOs should be partnering with their admissions and enrollment leaders to do some realistic forecasting and planning,” said the Enrollment Management Association’s senior director of outreach and business development.
The months since the presidential election have brought wide reports of international applicants staying away from U.S. colleges and universities, largely in Middle Eastern countries affected by the Trump administration’s travel ban. The K-12 sector, in comparison, may “have the impression there’s this never-ending pool of applicants” from overseas, Gruber worries. That’s partly because the current admissions cycle was well underway by the time of the election, let alone by the first travel ban. Gruber agrees that perceptions of a less-welcoming climate under the Trump administration aren’t helpful. But she also points to a broader confluence of factors that could dampen international demand, including the strength of the U.S. dollar and the growth (and improving quality) among international schools.
“The global economy is such that an education in the U.S. is much more expensive than it’s been,” said Gruber. Currency fluctuations in some countries can widen this gap dramatically, which is why some schools work with companies that help international families pay set tuition rates in their local currency. Further undercutting the appeal of a U.S. education are strategies such as one in Canada (where Gruber lives), “where you actually get extra points toward a Canadian visa if you graduated from a Canadian university,” she said. “It’s a brilliant strategy to address shortages of skilled workers.”
Anecdotal research by Net Assets bears out that Middle Eastern countries may only be the tip of the iceberg. “We have definitely been impacted in the Mexico market,” said the business officer at a Virginia boarding school. “We usually get between two and seven students, and a handful this year said they would not be applying due to the travel ban.”
“We need to double down on international recruitment,” Gruber said. Feedback from another NBOA member boarding school underscores this assessment as well. “We have not seen [a slowdown], said the business officer at a Massachusetts boarding school. “But we have been very proactive in making sure we travel to places and take efforts to make sure the inquiries continue.”
